Exploring the Relationship between Stochastic Events and Patterns of International Tourism in Kenya

Purpose: The purpose of this research was to investigate the fluctuations in international tourist arrivals Kenya and identify underlying factors contributing these trends. study aimed gain a deeper understanding impact stochastic events on arrivals.
 Methodology: focused across seven geographical areas. It utilized annual time series data from 1980 2020 examined various variables, including tourism arrivals, terrorism, political instability, conferences, natural disasters. Descriptive statistics, Kruskal-Wallis test, Lepage change point detection, Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) with Granger causality tests were employed analyze data.
 Findings: findings revealed significant preferred destinations, source markets, visits, length stay among tourists over period. Major observed coincide changes net or destinations. Notably, combined all had influence arrivals. Political pandemics, disasters also found affect Recommendations: Based results, policymakers are advised prioritize safety security measures mitigate adverse effects pandemics instability industry Kenya. Additionally, recommends development targeted marketing strategies attract resilient markets. Furthermore, promoting sustainable practices is essential long-term negative industry. These recommendations aim enhance resilience growth sector Kenya.